Sure, signs point to positive. But there's implicit fine print here that you may recognize from another domain:
Past performance is indicative of future results and returns.This should sound familiar to anyone who's invested in stocks, bonds, real estate, or the like. It's a disclaimer written in 6-point text at the bottom of those glossy ads that advertise high returns from a mutual fund, or a strong strategy of diversification from an index. They do so because, simply, you can't predict the stock market. And, despite what the ads say, you can't really base future results on what the past has resulted in.
I believe the same goes with weather. Even more so, actually. With stocks, bonds, and funds, you have a large number of variables that are impactful in the price of an investment (earnings, expenditures, products, services, acquisitions, divestitures, and the like), and the non-zero chance of scandals, crimes, and other "bad" things can all serve to drive the price of stocks up or down. So it goes with the weather; sure, we think that the rains/snow and the cool temperatures will continue. But all we have to base that on is two things: what we've seen to date, and what our weather models tell us. The models are great; kudos to the Jeff Renners of the world for making them. But they're not perfect, or even close to perfect.
Models and past results are enough to make a prediction on. But they're not enough to base a promise on. I'm all for a great snow season, both for the businesses and workers involved as well as the folks who enjoy snow sports. But I tend to be cautious & surprised rather than over-optimistic and disappointed when it comes to unpredictables like the weather.
Summed up:
The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us
to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it. ~Patrick
Young
6 comments:
My trip to Whistler last year SUCKED because of lack of snow!! Better be better this year. Will you be in Seattle over Thanksgiving weekend? I'm thinking of coming and looking for a ski/hiking partner...
Oh, on the subject of snow forecasts... I work a lot with weather people in my job, and they are quick to point out the huge fallacy of assuming weather models are for the most part based on past performance (a curve fit, if you will). I guess its a common misperception, especially amongst us technical people, because that's how we'd probably approach the problem of building weather models from scratch. However, most modern weather models are analytical in nature -- based on the physics of air flow in the atmosphere and over the ground, using dispersions, etc. to come up with overall seasonal trends and day to day forecasting. Of course, empirical data is used to help validate the models. But, its like saying that Newton's equations of motion is based on past performance of falling objects rather than an actual description of physics...
I will be around for Thanksgiving weekend, yes. Come on up!
On the subject of weather models, I would assume you feed empirical data of past and current weather conditions, and project what would happen using the laws of physics. My main question is around the sheer # of variables - do the models take into account the minute-by-minute changes in temperature, humidity, airspeed, direction, precipitation, pressure, etc.?
Separate but related question: I assume as you go out in time the model's accuracy falls - how far out do you typically have to go before the forecast becomes not much better than chance?
I know it's human nature to notice when weather folks get the forecasts wrong, and ignore when they get them right. :) I'm more peeved that people take projections for the coming 4-5 months and use that to sell season passes, when these projections are, IMO, not even close to a guarantee.
Well, my experience is more with forecasting on a weekly basis, rather than annual, seasonal things. But if you continue to use the anology to Newton's laws -- yes, a weather forecast won't get the minutae changes over 1 sq ft of land, but when you try to describe the motion of a falling object, you won't get the little aerodynamic wobble and shifts, either, but you can still forecast the trend pretty well. Yes, I think there are a lot of variables, but that's why we have computers :) -- and even though they don't take minute to minute data, the amount the data changes minute by minute is a fairly known dispersion (for instance - if the temperature is 85 degrees in the middle of the day, they know that might change plus or minus a few degrees depending) and those known dispersions are included in the modeling. That's part of the reason that you never get a 100% certain weather forecast, there's always some bounds of error, and the greater the dispersion, the larger the uncertainty in the prediction. We may just have really impressive weather guys here, but they are usually dead-on with the forecasts - including, once, I kid you not, "Its going to start raining at 6 p.m. (forecast made at 10 a.m.)" and I watched the thunder clouds roll in at 5:55, and the first drops of rain fall at 5:59... But we do monitor their accuracy since we make pretty important mission calls on the weather (for instance, if we decide to not do something because of weather, we pay attention to see if what really happens was what was forecasted), and I am extremely satisfied with the correlation.
Well, then, I hope to see you on Thanksgiving weekend! I'm not sure I'm coming yet, but probably. Since this is a snow forecast topic, do you ski? Irwin is going to some sporting event on Sunday of the weekend that I'm not interested in, and I'm thinking a trip to Crytsal Mt or something would be in order..
Good info on the weather forecasting. I have more to learn, it seems. :)
I don't ski or snowboard, and neither does Traci. Ironic, given where we live. Every time we consider learning, some media report of an avalanche or somesuch causes us to retreat back into our shells. :) That said, we like to snowshoe and we like sitting up in the lodge drinking hot chocolate.
You know, I've never been snowshoing before! I think that would be tons of fun! (BTW, you guys should learn to ski/snowboard! :)... avalanches are only a problem in backcountry, not on groomed slopes of a resort)
Well, I'll e-mail you when I know I'm coming for sure and we can make plans.
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